The Search Marketing Advisor Newsletter Article: January 2006, Volume 5, Issue 1
Forecasting: Krazy Glue for Cracks in the Crystal Ball
by Tom Shapiro, Regional Sales Manager, iProspect
I once went to a fortune teller. She told me that my car was going to be stolen on the following Tuesday. Luckily, Tuesday came and went with the car still safely in my possession.
What the fortune teller had apparently not seen in her crystal ball was that a sudden blizzard was going to hit. Apparently, no one wanted to be out stealing cars in a foot of snow that day.
We’d all like a glimpse into the future. And, by measuring your traditional marketing campaign results, you can leverage historical data to make assumptions about the results of future campaigns and develop marketing strategies that in effect, “predict the future.” Smart marketers do this every day.
Crystal Ball Cracks
But when marketers try to predict the search engine rankings their Web pages will achieve – and the corresponding increases in site traffic and conversions that they will generate – by their natural search engine optimization (SEO) efforts, or request that their search engine marketing firms provide such a forecast, cracks start to form inside the crystal ball.
The reason for this is that there are only certain aspects of your natural SEO campaign that you can control. Other aspects are completely out of your control. Others are not only out of your control, but also completely unpredictable – just like the snowstorm that saved my car.
For example, you can work on optimizing your site from a technical, content and linking perspective. You can also reference your prior results, or use an aggregate of prior results typically generated by your search engine marketing firm for their other clients. You can even point to overall search volumes on a specific keyword universe – all in an attempt to accurately forecast your future results.
But what happens, though, in the following scenarios?
Internal factors prohibit you from implementing selected changes to your site (cooperation/timing from the IT department, brand standard restrictions, your own bandwidth, outsourcing budget, etc.)
Search engine algorithms or policies change
Relationships between search engines change (who serves whose results)
Fluctuations in market demand for your products/services take place
You begin marketing a new product/service – or discontinue a current one
Your target market’s query language changes over time (notebook computer becomes laptop computer)
A major business event (such as Enron) or a scandal within your industry occurs
A major disaster takes place (Hurricane Katrina, 9/11)
Other factors that can have an impact include:
What your competition is doing with their SEO campaigns
New entrants into your competitive landscape
Your company’s overall advertising and marketing activities
Changes in your marketing strategy, plans, staffing, priorities and budget
Does it make sense to try to predict future business impact based on marketing investments such as natural SEO? Absolutely. Forecasting can be an extremely useful marketing planning tool.
However, there are lots of cracks in this particular crystal ball – potential snowstorms that may or may not hit – and despite what any vendor may tell you, it is impossible for anyone to guarantee their predictions of future SEO results.
Therefore, when forecasting future search engine optimization results:
Be realistic
Include caveats for factors such as degree of SEO implementation, current events, market changes, query behavior changes, the competition, etc.
Project ranges of results rather than specific figures
Factor in your overall marketing plans and any major marketing campaigns that may impact your site’s traffic
Remember that search engine algorithms are continually changing, and you will need access to proven technology to recognize these changes
Remember that natural SEO takes time, and therefore, its results take time
Remember that your results will depend on your overall SEO strategy and execution, not just adding title tags or a few extra keywords
Track and measure actual results along the way, and adjust your forecasts accordingly
If you are receiving a forecast from an SEO firm, confirm how they are specifically generating their projections
Buy some Krazy Glue for the inevitable cracks that will appear in the crystal ball
